10/09/2025
Export Situation of Goods from Vietnam to the United States in the Next 3 Months (October-December 2025)
Based on data updated as of early October 2025, exports from Vietnam to the US are expected to maintain growth but at a slower pace compared to the first half of the year, primarily due to the impact of new tariff measures from the Trump administration and global demand fluctuations. The total export value to the US accounts for about 30% of Vietnam's GDP, making it a key market but also vulnerable to trade tensions. Below is a detailed analysis based on the latest economic reports.
1. Overall Trends and Growth Forecasts
2025 Growth: Vietnam's exports to the US increased by 15.8% in the first 9 months (reaching $325.3 billion in total exports), but August saw a decline due to tariffs taking effect from August 7, 2025. The full-year forecast is for over 12% growth, but Q4 may only see 8-10% increase year-over-year, with risks of reduction if tariffs escalate further.
Q4 Forecast: Holiday season demand (Black Friday, Christmas) could boost consumer goods exports, partially offsetting tariff damages. However, total trade value may decrease by 5-7% from initial plans, equivalent to a loss of about $6-8 billion, due to higher prices and reduced competitiveness. Vietnam-US trade surplus is expected to remain positive but narrow from the $9.7 billion level (first 7 months).
2. Impact of Tariffs and Trade Tensions
Key Tariffs: From August 2025, the US imposed a 20% tariff on most imports from Vietnam (instead of the initially planned 46%), along with 40% penalties for certain items like transshipments from China. Heavily affected sectors: wood, furniture, textiles (increased tariffs from October 14, 2025). Estimated total damage could reach $25 billion over 1-2 years, equivalent to 5% of Vietnam's GDP.
Tensions: Vietnam is viewed by the US as a "bypass route" for Chinese goods, leading to tighter controls. The Vietnamese government is negotiating new agreements (such as FTAs with the EU, CPTPP) to diversify, but Q4 will still face pressure from US-Vietnam negotiations.
3. Trends by Key Commodities
The main export items to the US (accounting for 70% of total value) will show divergence:
Textiles and Footwear: Increase of 10-15% thanks to the holiday season, but 20% tariffs reduce profits. These are the largest sectors, with H1/2025 export value up 14.4%.
Electronics and Machinery: Stable at 5-8% growth, thanks to high-tech demand (phones, components). Vietnam serves as an alternative source to China.
Furniture and Wood: Sharp decline of 15-20% due to new wood tariffs (effective from October 14), impacting holiday exports.
Agricultural and Aquatic Products (e.g., pangasius): Slight increase of 5-10%, with pangasius remaining resilient despite US declines, thanks to market diversification.
Total US Imports from Vietnam: Expected to reach $150-155 billion for the full year, up from $142.48 billion in 2024, but Q4 slowing down.
4. Risk Factors and Opportunities
Risks: US economic slowdown (forecasted 2.5% growth in Q4), high inflation reducing demand; potential tariff increases if negotiations fail; supply chain disruptions due to fall storms.
Opportunities: Holiday season boosts consumer goods (toys, gifts); strong FDI in manufacturing (up 7.1% of GDP in 2024 thanks to exports); Vietnam could benefit from "China+1" if it controls goods origins well.
Vietnam's Response: The government prioritizes negotiations with the US, supports businesses through export credits, and diversifies markets (EU, Japan).
Overall, Q4/2025 will be a "challenging" period for exports to the US, but not to the point of recession thanks to seasonal demand and economic resilience. Businesses should closely monitor updates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and consult forwarders to adjust strategies. If you need specific data on commodities or regions, provide more details!
