Bass Weather Services, LLC

04/09/2026

This past Tuesday evening I completed teaching a 10-week Weather and Climate course to the Nature Forward group based in Chevy Chase, MD. Nature Forward is a non-profit organization dedicating to conserving, protecting, and connecting people in the greater Washington, DC area with the natural world. This year I had seven students who took this interactive course for credit towards their adult learning certificates. Each week since 3 February I presented a specific topic of interest in the world of weather and climate. The class learned about the history of meteorology, observing techniques and sensors, weather forecasting, severe weather, winter weather, climate and climate change, and even areas like aviation weather, space weather, and fire weather. I also set up field trips for the class to tour the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA, the NBC4 weather studio in DC, and the Sterling Field Support Office where the National Weather Service tests new equipment. One of the students released a weather balloon at the test facility, and we were able to take pictures in front of one of the screens the broadcast meteorologists use at Channel 4.

It's always fun (okay, usually fun) to educate people about meteorology, especially when I can show them what it takes to develop a forecast and how much goes into it, from weather models to sensors to education. More importantly, educating people, whether it’s elementary school students or senior citizens, about hazardous weather helps to prepare them for those events so they can take the right actions to keep them safe.

03/19/2026

I wanted to make a comment about the weather event this past Monday in the Carolinas and Virginia. I've seen other meteorologists post apologies for their forecasts of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for the region that obviously didn't occur. Well, I'm not apologizing for what I posted. Leading up to the event I told people in the Carolinas and Virginia that there was the potential for severe thunderstorms that could produce strong tornadoes and that the event needed to be taken seriously. I also mentioned the threat of high non-thunderstorm winds as well as a line of thunderstorms associated with the cold front as it moved across the states. While there were a few tornado warnings issued the only confirmed tornado so far in the Carolinas and Virginia was in Charlotte. So the tornadoes didn't happen, is that really a bad thing? The non-thunderstorm winds weren't quite as high as forecasted either, although the line of storms with the cold front occurred exactly as forecast. Still, looking back at everything, the ingredients were there leading up to the event, so I wouldn't change a thing. As I like to say, my forecast wasn't wrong, the weather just didn't cooperate!

Yes we occasionally get the forecast wrong, and this was one of those times that many will remember. People don't remember the 90% of correct forecasts (like the nice weather today in those same areas), and that's okay. I'm glad the forecast was wrong, as I'd rather miss a forecast of tornadoes not occurring than miss one of a tornado outbreak that I didn't warn about.

03/15/2026

Wanted to provide an update regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday for the Carolinas and Virginia. I don’t really like being doom and gloom and overhyping a storm, but this one needs to be taken seriously. All the atmospheric ingredients are setting up over the area on Monday that could lead to the formation of supercell thunderstorms that will have the potential of spawning strong, long-lived tornadoes during the afternoon for anywhere between Columbia, SC and Washington, DC, and east to the coast. In addition, winds even without thunderstorms could gust up to 50 mph throughout the area.

If that wasn’t enough, the very strong cold front will likely create an extremely strong line of thunderstorms that will move across the states (actually from New York to Georgia) during the afternoon and evening behind these supercell storms. The biggest threat from this line will be winds that could gust up to 80 mph.

The timing of these storms will be anywhere from late morning to about 10 PM, so please watch the skies and pay attention to your local National Weather Service, radio, and TV broadcasts. If a warning is issued for your area, take action immediately as these storms will be moving fast. I’m hoping things won’t turn out as bad as it could, but I’m afraid it could be even worse than projected if a couple of strong tornadoes are produced.

The image attached is the tornado outlook for Monday.

03/14/2026

I have concerns about Monday for the Mid-Atlantic regarding severe thunderstorms. The models are in pretty good agreement and indications are a derecho-type event could occur, where a line of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds starting early Monday morning through the Midwest all the way to the Gulf coast could stay intact through late Monday night as it moves across the Carolinas and Virginia. Before the line, it’s possible that supercells could occur especially in the Carolinas in the afternoon, which increases the tornado risk. Even without the storms, winds could gust 30-40 miles per hour, perhaps stronger. Bottom line, stay alert and monitor your local weather broadcasters and National Weather Service forecasts for the latest information.

02/05/2026

Happy National Weatherpersons Day to my colleagues and friends in the weather career field and industry! They may take a lot of heat sometimes from people who have no clue about forecasting the weather, but they are passionate in what they do to keep the public safe and informed.

01/30/2026

A final update before the Nor'easter takes shape. While much of North Carolina will get snow, the storm will really mostly impact the eastern half of the state, as well as the northern part of South Carolina and the southeast portion of Virginia. Snow will start in eastern NC overnight into Saturday morning and continue until early Sunday morning. I really like the attached forecasted snow amounts from the European Artificial Intelligence model as it goes along with my thinking. The heaviest snow should be from about Surf City north through Kinston, Greenville, and then northwest to the VA/NC line around Moyock. These areas could see 8-10 inches of snow. The amounts tail off rapidly west of there, but anywhere east of I-95 could still see 4-6 inches of snow with locally heavier amounts. I think the Raleigh-Durham area will see 2-4 inches as well, and the Tidewater area could see 4-6 inches too.

The big story will be wind, with coastal areas seeing gusts up to 60+ miles per hour especially Saturday night into Sunday morning. Inland areas could see gusts to 50. The wind and snow may create whiteout situations and blizzard conditions so driving will be almost impossible. Snow drifts could be several feet high.

Finally, the strong winds could also produce a lot of coastal and river flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see places like New Bern and little Washington flood due to the wind pushing water up the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Same with areas around Norfolk as the wind will push water from the Bay into the local rivers, causing high tides to be over 3 feet above normal.

Take this storm seriously. It will be over by lunch time on Sunday (except the wind will still be strong the rest of the day), but temperatures in the 20s will keep this snow from melting anytime soon and will cause even treated roads to become snow covered. Prepare now to be stuck at home for a couple of days or more.

01/28/2026

Here's the latest from my point of view regarding the potential Nor'easter this weekend. It is likely that eastern North Carolina and possibly the Tidewater area of Virginia will see significant impacts including accumulating snow and strong winds. Blizzard conditions or at least blizzard-like conditions (sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than 35 miles per hour, and snow that limits visibility to 1/4 mile or less for at least 3 hours) are very possible between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations could vary between 2 and 10 inches, as the models are in disagreement still about the exact track of the low. Regardless, power outages and almost impossible travel conditions are possible basically east of I-95.

For the central part of North Carolina the models are even worse. That area may get an inch or two, or maybe 5-8 inches. Similarly, areas of central and western Virginia including the Shenandoah Valley may see an inch or two of snow. But that snow is not all due to the Nor'easter. It will actually be because of an Alberta Clipper that will pass through and merge with the southern storm, which it turn creates the Nor'easter. It's actually a classic set up for a Nor'easter that shows up in textbooks.

So basically, I don't know what's going to happen yet except eastern NC is going to get a lot of wind, probably quite a bit of snow, and very cold temperatures that will combine to cause a lot of problems. For those that remember the Christmas snow storm along the coast of NC in 1989, this is shaping up to be very similar.

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01/26/2026

Just a heads up for folks in eastern North Carolina and the coastal sections of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and possibly New Jersey that models are in pretty good agreement about a Nor'easter forming off the Carolina coast this coming weekend. While the track, timing, and intensity can (and probably will) change before then, this could potentially be much worse than the winter storm that just went through, as winds would be much stronger and the chance of snow is much higher as cold air will be locked in place. If it happens I think it will probably be more towards Sunday. I'll send out a more detailed outlook in a couple of days as things firm up.

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01/24/2026

One more update before the winter storm hits the Mid-Atlantic beginning Saturday afternoon and evening. Probably the biggest change from what I posted on Thursday is regarding sleet moving farther north than I previously forecasted, even into the DC area by Sunday afternoon.

Northern Virginia, Maryland, and DC areas – Snow beginning early evening on Saturday, lasting until late Sunday night. Areas west and north of DC may see a brief transition to sleet before it ends, while areas east and south may transition to sleet on Sunday morning with a chance of some freezing rain in the afternoon. Total accumulation of 12-18 inches for those places staying all snow, with western Maryland and northwest West Virginia possibly seeing up to 2 feet of snow. Expect 8-10 inches of snow with an additional inch of sleet for the DC area, and 6-8 inches for eastern Maryland and the I-95 corridor in Virginia, although any freezing rain will reduce those amounts (but also increase the odds of power outages).

Virginia, excluding the Tidewater area – Snow starting early Saturday evening, continuing through Sunday for the Shenandoah Valley and generally areas west of Richmond into the mountains. Accumulations of 10-16 inches in the Shenandoah Valley, locally 18+ inches especially west of I-81. This area may see snow changing to sleet Sunday afternoon although I’m still a little skeptical about when it changes and how much sleet there will be. Areas north and west of Richmond can expect 8-10 inches of snow but should see sleet and/or freezing rain mixing in especially Sunday afternoon and evening. For areas south of Richmond the snow will likely change to freezing rain and sleet by early morning Sunday, reducing the accumulation to around 6 inches and significantly increasing the chance of tree damage and power outages. Oh, and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear reports of thunder through central and possibly northern Virginia, especially Sunday morning during the heaviest precipitation.

Tidewater area of Virginia and northeast North Carolina – The precipitation should start as snow Saturday evening and last through most of the night. Temperatures begin to warm overnight and change the snow to rain before sunrise on Sunday. Rain will continue through the day and overnight into early Monday morning, which will melt any snow on the ground by Sunday afternoon as temperatures climb into the 40s. Before it melts there could be 2-3 inches of snow on the ground. While there may be a brief period of sleet and freezing rain as it changes over I don’t think it will be significant.

North and South Carolina – The precipitation may start as snow in the mid to late afternoon, but overall this area is set for a significant ice storm. For most of central North Carolina it will sleet for some time but indications are now it will become mostly freezing rain for the event. Areas south and east of the Triangle will be mostly freezing rain the whole time. Several inches of sleet are possible, and several models are now forecasting the possibility of over an inch of freezing rain. Expect extremely treacherous travel conditions, significant tree damage, and widespread (and potentially long-lasting) power outages. Areas west of US-17 will be more likely to experience at least some freezing rain, while areas to the west of the highway should be all rain.

While the trend has changed some regarding amounts of precipitation and/or type, do not underestimate the power and danger of this winter storm. Travel will be extremely dangerous, and I’m afraid there will be widespread and long-lasting power outages, especially for the Carolinas. After the storm it will be extremely cold next week for the entire area, probably the coldest we’ve seen in some years. Many locations won’t get above freezing for highs for most of the week, with lows in the single digits and possibly below zero in some areas. It will also be rather breezy so wind chills will be 10-20 degrees colder than the actual temperature. Power outages will just make the cold even worse. Have a plan on what to do or where to go if you experience a prolonged power outage, taking into account that travel may still be limited. Finally, frozen pipes will be a significant issue as many times they aren’t wrapped or protected in the South so once things do warm up you may have new issues to deal with.

The image is a forecast of snow depth totals from the Rapid Refresh Model as of 7 PM EST on Sunday evening, with several hours of winter precipitation to go.

01/22/2026

My latest update, using the same style I used in yesterday’s post, breaking the impacts down to sections of the Mid-Atlantic.

The main changes are the potential for even more snow than I mentioned yesterday for northwest and western Virginia as well as parts of Maryland, mostly or all rain for areas east of US-13 in North Carolina, and more freezing rain and/or sleet for much of southern Virginia. The attached charts are a forecast of total snowfall by 7 AM Monday morning by the Global Forecast System (American) (top chart) and ECMWF (European) (bottom chart) forecast models. The GFS is forecasting almost twice as much snow as the ECMWF, which is much more bullish bringing the freezing rain and sleet farther north. I’m leaning towards the GFS so far with higher snow amounts.

Northern Virginia, Maryland, and DC areas – Snow beginning early evening on Saturday, lasting until after midnight Sunday night. Areas west and north of DC should stay all snow, while areas east and south may transition to sleet and/or freezing rain on Sunday afternoon. Total accumulation of 12-18 inches for those places getting all snow, with western Maryland and northwest West Virginia possibly see up to 2 feet of snow. Expect 8-10 inches of snow with an additional inch of sleet for eastern Maryland and the I-95 corridor in Virginia, although any freezing rain will reduce those amounts (but also increase the odds of power outages).

Virginia, excluding the Tidewater area – Snow starting late Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday for the Shenandoah Valley and generally areas west of Richmond into the mountains. Accumulations of 14-20 inches in the Shenandoah Valley, locally 20+ inches especially west of I-81. Areas north and west of Richmond can expect 10-12 inches of snow but may see sleet and/or freezing rain mixing in especially late Sunday afternoon and evening. For areas south of Richmond the snow will likely change to freezing rain and sleet by mid-morning Sunday, reducing the accumulation to around 6 inches and significantly increasing the chance of tree damage and power outages.

Tidewater area of Virginia and northeast North Carolina – The precipitation should start as snow Saturday evening and last through most of the night. Temperatures begin to warm overnight and change the snow to rain by around sunrise on Sunday. Rain will continue through the day and overnight into early Monday morning, which will probably melt any snow on the ground Sunday morning. Before it melts there could be 1-4 inches of snow on the ground. While there may be a brief period of sleet and freezing rain I don’t think it will be significant.

North and South Carolina – The precipitation may start as snow in the mid to late afternoon, but overall this area is set for a significant ice storm. For most of central North Carolina I believe it will be sleet, while areas south will be mostly freezing rain. Several inches of sleet are possible, and possibly over a half inch of freezing rain. Regardless of the type, expect extremely treacherous travel conditions, significant tree damage, and widespread (and potentially long-lasting) power outages. The rain/winter precipitation line at this time seems to be US-17, with areas west in the winter precipitation area and areas east mostly if not all rain through the event.

Again, no matter what kind of winter precipitation falls in your area (except rain), traveling will be treacherous and very dangerous, and power outages are possible. As a reminder, it will be very cold next week for the entire area with almost all locations well below freezing at night and many places not getting above freezing during the day. If you haven’t completed preparations already do so before Saturday afternoon, and remember your neighbors are probably already out buying up the bread, milk, toilet paper, and booze that are mandatory items to purchase for any winter event, so you might be out of luck if you wait too long.

I’ll do an update again on Friday.

01/21/2026

I’m going to concentrate the details of this post to basically Maryland through the Carolinas, although obviously the impacts of this impending winter storm will be felt throughout the South and back to the southern Plains.

This storm hasn’t even formed yet, so the models are having a hard time with consistency run to run. For example, one of the models showed 4 inches of snow for my area, 12 hours later the forecast total was 24 inches. Heavy snow forecast for North Carolina has been replaced with more freezing rain and sleet, especially for the Triangle and areas east. Here’s my current breakdown by area, with the assumption that things may change significantly in the next few days:

Northern Virginia, Maryland, and DC areas – All snow beginning late Saturday afternoon or early evening, lasting until after midnight Sunday night. Total accumulation 8-10 inches, locally 12+ inches. I could be low on the snow amounts

Virginia, excluding the Tidewater area – Snow starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday for the Shenandoah Valley and generally areas west of Richmond into the mountains. Accumulations of 14-20 inches, possibly more since snow to liquid ratios will be so low (normally an inch of precipitation works out to about 10 inches of snow, but temperatures will be so cold that the ratio will be more like 15 or 20 to 1). For areas south of Richmond the snow could mix with or change to freezing rain and sleet on Sunday, which would reduce the accumulation but also introduce the chance of tree damage and power outages.

Tidewater area of Virginia and northeast North Carolina – Here it gets messy and could very well change. I believe it will still start as snow Saturday evening and last through most of the night. But the coastal low that forms off the Carolina coast will bring in warmer air off the ocean and raise temperatures by Sunday morning. Thus the snow will change to freezing rain and sleet, and then to all rain through most of the day before maybe changing back to some kind of frozen precipitation before it ends Monday morning. Still 4-8 inches of snow, possibly ¼ inch of ice. Again, I have low confidence in this part of the forecast.

North and South Carolina – While the precipitation may start as snow in the mid to late afternoon, it looks more and more like this area will have a significant ice storm. The best case is that it’s mostly sleet, which could still accumulate several inches as it will last until late Sunday night. Worst case is freezing rain, with amounts up to an inch. If that happens expect extremely treacherous travel conditions, significant tree damage, and widespread (and potentially long-lasting) power outages. Winds will also gust up to 20-25 miles per hour, which won’t help. Along the coast the temperatures will likely rise well above freezing on Sunday so that area should be all rain.

Regardless of what kind of winter precipitation falls in your area, traveling will be treacherous and very dangerous, and power outages are possible. In addition, it will be very cold next week for the entire area with almost all locations well below freezing at night and many places not getting above freezing during the day. Be prepared with blankets, portable heating devices, bottles of drinking water, and other supplies. Check on your neighbors, the elderly, and of course make sure your pets are inside and warm. Finally, don’t run a generator inside your house, garage, or any enclosed structure to prevent Carbon Monoxide poisoning.

I was going to attach a snowfall total forecast map but they are all over the place in terms of guesses so I'll hold off for now. I will do an update again on Thursday.

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01/20/2026

As you’ve probably heard, there is potential this weekend for a significant winter storm across the southern United States. A very cold airmass moving in from the north will collide with a very moist airmass that will form from Texas to Virginia. I won’t go into all the dynamics at play, but basically the warm moist air at about 5,000 feet in the atmosphere will ride over the cold, below freezing air at the surface. The result will be widespread freezing rain and sleet from central Texas all the way to the Carolinas. This winter precipitation will be heavy, with possibly over an inch of ice in places, which will likely cause widespread tree damage and power outages across the Gulf states starting Friday and especially Saturday. It will also be a long-lived event, lasting well over 24 hours.

On the northern side of the system it will be all snow. Heavy snow upwards of a foot or more is possible from northern Texas through Arkansas and maybe the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

For the Carolinas and Virginia, it is still too early to make a good prediction of any amounts. What I do think is freezing rain and sleet will be the predominant form of precipitation basically south of US-70 in North Carolina, at least to the Raleigh-Durham area. Again, widespread tree damage and power outages will be possible. North of there through Virginia and back into the central and western parts of North Carolina and western South Carolina, I believe it will be all snow. Again, I won’t wager a guess on totals yet but let’s just say you better have a good snowblower. Also, the dividing line of where the snow ends is a toss up as well. The forecast models are really diverging on solutions right now for that. For example, one model is forecasting about 4 inches for my location in Waynesboro, VA, while another is saying we will get over a foot. They also diverge in terms of precipitation for northeastern NC and southeastern VA. At least one model keeps the area in all snow, with potentially record setting amounts. But at least one other model starts the precipitation as snow, changes it to freezing rain or sleet, then to a period of rain as the coastal low moves off the Carolina coast and brings warmer air back onto land, and then back to snow before it ends. In that case, snow totals would be much less but ice amounts could be an issue. Any rain would obviously lower the amounts as well but could also contribute to very icy surfaces as the bitter cold air moves back in on Monday.

I’ll post again in a day or two as we get closer and have a better idea of what’s going to happen, especially for the Carolinas and Virginia. Regardless, people from Texas to Virginia should start planning now for an extended winter storm and after effects.

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