10/05/2024
UPDATE: New 5 PM Advisory is in with now the NHC calling for a Major Hurricane (Category 3) at peak intensity. Landfall is still expected on Wednesday. Here are my thoughts as of Saturday evening:
1. This storm has gotten better organized today over water temps warmer than average in the Gulf for October. Conditions in the short-term, including lower shear, will allow for gradual or even rapid intensification as it heads across the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The official forecast calls for a Major Hurricane with intensity models currently showing Category 3+ at peak and potentially at landfall.
2. Models recently bumped a bit north, but we've been through this song and dance before. IMPORTANT: IT'S STILL EARLY AND THESE TRACK AND INTENSITY MODELS CAN CHANGE. Expect more adjustments north or south! Look for trends and consistency. Highest current probability for landfall is between Marco Island to Cedar Key, which includes potential tracks through Tampa Bay or Southwest Florida. They will start to tighten up with greater accuracy over the next day or two. Reminder that every storm is different in the impacts they bring and those impacts will be felt outside of the cone too.
3. IMPORTANT: The surge forecast has not been released yet from the NHC. When I have those numbers, I will immediately share them. Life-threatening storm surge will be possible with this storm for a portion of the coast. If you're on the southern side of the storm you will be getting surge to a certain degree. *CLOSEST TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL WILL GET THE HIGHEST SURGE.* That's why landfall location is important with this storm. Every mile makes a difference! If you're north of the center, your wind will be coming in from a different direction and from the land...more likely to suck the water out at landfall, but often they get even heavier rain. Some surge is still possible north after the storm exists, but not to the level compared to those south of the center.
4. A lot of questions about shutters. You are more than welcome to do whatever you like to your comfort level, but I would wait until Sunday or when the NHC releases Hurricane Watches. Those are the spots I normally recommend shutters for. At a minimum, Southwest Florida is looking at tropical storm-force wind. But if computer models trend closer, I will upgrade that to hurricane-force conditions. Strongest wind will be in the eyewall just outside of the center.
5. Current projection for forward motion is around 15 mph when it passes by Florida. Not as slow as Ian, but not as fast as Helene.
6. Once again, remain calm. I will have local impacts and specifics soon once models come into better agreement. Now is the time this weekend to review your hurricane plan with your family or friends. Grab necessities, but don't overstock. If you are told to evacuate, please do so!
I will guide you through the entire storm 24/7 every step of the way, without the hype and with information you need. Make sure to tune into WINK News for the latest all week.
