01/28/2026
As we embark on a New Year, below is an update from Airport Director Jeff Wadekamper on the current state of air-service and the efforts of the Airport to garner more.
Here is a long and detailed update on commercial air service in Helena and around the nation. There is a lot of information here, as the airport / airline business is very complex. If you have interest in what is really occurring within the industry this may be helpful. Feel free to share this with anyone as we want everyone to understand the trends and the challenges in today’s air service environment and the many positives that Helena has to be thankful for, and the future opportunities we are working on.
Helena’s air service performed well last year and saw a small increase in passenger traffic over 2024. In 2025, we saw 101,767 passenger boardings (passengers outbound). This was compared to 101,280 boardings for 2025. In reviewing total passengers going through the airport (in and out), 2025 saw 203,178 compared to 201,024 in 2024. On the surface it might appear that we did not see much growth, and while that is correct year over year, you have to consider the wide range of challenges in the industry that have limited our ability to see growth. Also, in 2025, Alaska was not able to continue the second daily Seattle flight that operated in 2024, but United added capacity which made up for the previous year’s Alaska flights and will add seats so we will see growth in 2026 once the full 12 months of that change has been realized.
UNDERSTANDING SEAT CAPACITY VERSUS “FLIGHTS”
I often get asked about ”more flights”, so I thought an explanation of the dynamics occurring in the industry which affect “flights” and “seats” might help clarify the difference. The trends across the board is to retire smaller aircraft in favor of larger aircraft. This is certainly happening at the smaller non-hub airport level as the airlines are retiring the 50 seat CRJ’s. Over 300 of the 50-seat jets have been retired in recent years with the remainder being phased out in the next few years. The new floor for a small community (unless subsidized by the Federal Essential Air Service Program) is now 70 or 76 seats and above. This is largely served by Embraer 170 (70 seat) and 175 (76 seat) platforms.
What this translates into for a place like Helena is that airlines have been up gauging aircraft size to grow seat capacity, as opposed to adding more daily “flight” frequencies. Now of course frequencies are great for connectivity and schedule flexibility options, but the facts are that despite not seeing more “flights”, we are seeing a net increase in seats. This is important as there are not excess aircraft available to provide huge increases in daily flight frequencies. As a result, we expect to see robust growth in 2026 as United’s increase in seat capacity that occurred part way through 2025 will produce great results in 2026 after a full 12 months of being in place. All too often folks use “flights” as the metric for success instead of truly understating the underlying data and why it is occurring. One of the industry challenges today involves air traffic congestion at the major hubs. If you think about a 50-seater versus a 76 or larger aircraft, it takes up the same space to synchronize that aircraft in an approach or departure procedure with other traffic no matter the aircraft size (although yes speed can be a factor), so larger airplanes moving more people increases efficiency. Additionally, the economics are also better with larger aircraft as the airline industry has determined that operating costs can no longer be spread across 50 passengers, unless higher fares are charged (think ticket prices in a place like Helena on a 50-seat jet versus a larger jet in another community). As you can see there are positives happening in the Helena market by transitioning to larger aircraft with more seats even if frequencies (“flights”) are not increasing in number each day. Below is a comparison of available seats the airport had outbound in 2025, compared to what we have outbound in 2026 (as we know today – hoping we may land more service in 2026 which would increase these numbers even higher).
2025 Outbound Seats Available (included 3rd 50-seat United flight to Denver from May – October and up-size to two daily 76-seat jets starting in October): 125,952
Projected 2026 Outbound Seats Available (Based on Current Schedule): 134,320
THE GOOD NEWS – GROWTH PROJECTED FOR 2026 – RECRUITMENT WILL CONTINUE!
As you can see above, in 2026 we will gain over 8,000 additional seats outbound (over 16,000 in and out) which is a large increase. In 2019, Helena’s 6th consecutive and all-time record year, we had 118,628 boardings, so if load factors remain strong in 2026, based on the number of available outbound seats we have now (134,320), we will see a record year with strong growth over 2025 numbers.
As we head into 2026, the Helena Air Service Alliance will continue every effort possible to maintain and improve air service in Helena. We continually communicate with all of the airlines to ensure they are familiar with Helena and what we believe is a very unique airport business model that ensures the airlines can be economically successful here. We will also continue the effort to keep increasing the incentive funds, so we remain competitive with other similar efforts across the nation. This incentive fund would not be possible without the great support of the Helena Area Chamber of Commerce (another reason to join the Chamber as a member!). Airports legally under Federal law cannot use airport funds or provide financial incentives, aside from approved fee waiver programs (which we have an is FAA approved), or a DOT Small Community Air Service Development Grant (which we also have in the amount of $1,004,743 – largest any Montana airport has ever received!). The willingness of the Chamber to manage the incentive funds on behalf of the community effort to get more service is very critical and much appreciated. Anyone can donate any amount at any time. These donations have ranged from $100 from an individual to $50,000 from larger organizations and businesses. We have even received financial support from some other government agencies including the City of Helena and The Montana Department of Commerce. If you wish to donate, please contact the Chamber at (406)-442-4120 or [email protected].
AIRLINE INDUSTRY TRENDS
The airline industry is affected by so many global variables anymore including everything from a government shutdown, global pandemic, pilot and aircraft manufacturer supply chain shortages, effects of aircraft accidents, national air traffic control system issues, weather events, economic effects, and even global conflicts that the industry has to be prepared for and resilient from. This all trickles down to a small community like Helena as well. Additionally the aviation industry is changing very rapidly. Below are some links to various articles that outline what some of the different airlines are facing and steps each is taking to re-tool their business model. We stay on top of these trends and try to find opportunities and avoid threats in any way possible.
United – United is the fastest growing airline brand. The next opportunity for Helena with United may be service to Chicago. Gate space and air traffic congestion at O'Hare is a challenge, however, United and American are having a turf war at Chicago which may present as each airline has recently publicly eluded to adding flights to Chicago to protect their presence. This could be an opportunity for Helena to get access to an Eastern hub and we are actively pursuing this with both airlines as this is written.
United Airlines is the fastest growing and now the largest airline brand
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/world-s-largest-airline-united-proves-scale-reliability-can-mix/ar-AA1UEZU7?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=69725cdcd732415aa55d0aa2a4327595&ei=32
United Airlines Efforts to Protect Chicago Hub Presence (opportunity for Helena to get another East hub connection)
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines-lessors/united-airlines-eyes-chicago-showdown-american-airlines-expands
Delta – Our top goal has been and still is to get that Minneapolis route back. We have tried every angle we can in addition offering our entire $1.6 Million incentive package including no airport fees for 2 years, to get Delta to bring back that route. Delta continues to tell us they are interested, but do not have the aircraft currently. That is the reason they pulled that service from Great Falls last year too. We will stay on this and have another meeting soon with Delta to keep Helena top of mind. Skywest, who flies as a regional affiliate in smaller markets like Helena, has 16 E175 jets on order to begin receiving in 2027. Delta has told us that 2027 is the earliest that we could see that route back. Delta is also converting older CRJ900’s to a 50 seat C50 platform to replace 76 seat jets they have in some locations where they are flying routes under the federal Essential Air Service (EAS) Program. That conversion is taking place in 2026 so that also may provide Helena an opportunity in 2027 to get the Minneapolis service back. We will stay on this!
Delta A220 Fleet
https://simpleflying.com/how-many-flights-delta-air-lines-fly-airbus-a220-this-year/
Alaska – Alaska has been affected by the aircraft delivery slowdown to a great degree. Alaska has re-allocated their 76 seat jets to fill in some gaps where larger aircraft would normally have been. This led to the removal of the second daily Seattle flight at the end of 2024, and more recently has also created the late arriving and departing flight we currently have with Seattle. To keep service to all their destinations, Alaska has extended their 24-hour aircraft use per plane metric to over 11 hours which has pushed flight times to places like Helena out into the evening. We see a little improvement to that schedule starting on February 12, where the flight will arrive from Seattle at 3:59p.m. and depart back to Seattle at 4:36 p.m. This is much better for connections than the current times of 6:11 p.m. arrival and 6:48 p.m. departure. Alaska tells us they see the aircraft supply issue getting better in 2027. They also recently ordered a large number of new aircraft to be delivered over many years.
Alaska Airlines Makes Large Boeing Aircraft Order
https://news.alaskaair.com/company/alaska-airlines-announces-largest-fleet-order-in-airlines-history/
American – has continued to tell us they are interested in Helena and they still believe that their best access point from Helena into their network is through their largest hub at Dallas Fort Worth Texas (DFW). American also has a lack of available aircraft, however they have 90 E175 jets on order and are building 12 new gates at DFW. American is also having a turf war with United at Chicago O'Hare. Recently, American announced new Phoenix Sky Harbor service from Lincoln, Nebraska to Phoenix. I recently learned that Lincoln’s community air service task force provided an incentive package over $4 Million to make that happen. Clear evidence that air service recruitment is very competitive (and our fund doesn’t have $4 Million yet!). We will keep working on American to add them to Helena, but they told us 2027 is likely the earliest at this point. American has struggled to stay profitable too – see article link below:
American Airlines Struggles to Achieve Profitability
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2025/10/23/american-airlines-posts-loss-but-says-this-quarter-will-be-profitable/
Southwest – has gone through some huge changes this past year as they try to get back on top of profitability. We talk with Southwest to keep Helena on their minds. They have done very well in Bozeman but have been up front that they have done so by drawing passengers from all around Montana. Southwest operates various 737 variants and have always had the model of multiple trips per day to any place they serve. Southwest is extremely impressed with our airport business model and how it is simplified and economical for the airlines. The largest hurdle for Helena related to Southwest is the fact we are so close to Bozeman where they already operate, but we will keep on top of them as they are making massive changes and one never knows how that might affect how and where they do business.
Southwest Airlines Implements Changes to Increase Performance
https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-profits-fall-over-40-percent-stock-gains-more-any-other-airline-2025/
WHAT ABOUT THE “LOW COST” AIRLINES?
Here again, the “low cost” airline segment is seeing some of the most substantial challenges and changes facing all of the different airline business models. Various economic factors are impacting how these leisure airlines can remain relevant and compete with the legacy network airlines. Premium services that are commonplace in the large network airlines are the main source of profits. Many of these services are not offered by the low-cost airlines as they typically charge a low base fare to give you a seat to get to a destination. As costs go up the low-cost airlines are finding it more challenging than ever to charge a one-way fare of say $79 to cover costs and make profits. In reality one of the last remaining places for an airline to trim margins is in airport use costs. Helena has a great opportunity here we think, as the Helena Airport’s use fees charged to the airlines are some of the lowest in the state and the nation. The national average cost per passenger for non-hub airports is just over $10/passenger. Helena is at $5/passenger. The way we do that is to generate revenue to maintain the airport from no-traditional sources – much of which is non-aviation related outside of the airfield perimeter. Costco, Pioneer Aerostructures, Boeing, Regional Fire Training Center, numerous office building land leases, the Helena IR, Montana radio Company, etc…. 76% of our airport’s revenue is non-aviation related! So the next time you see a new development on the airport campus, whether it’s an aerospace manufacturer, car wash, coffee shop, bank, retail outlet or an office building, just remember that is part of the economics supporting a business plan laser focused on more airline service through low-cost economical airline use fees! These economic activities also provide revenue to the local tax base as well. We also communicate ongoing with the low-cost airlines to find any opportunity to add them to Helena’s flight schedules.
Allegiant Purchasing Sun Country
https://newsroom.allegiantair.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Allegiant-and-Sun-Country-Airlines-to-Combine-Creating-a-Leading-More-Competitive-Leisure-Focused-U-S--Airline/default.aspx
Allegiant Cuts 4 Routes (including one at Kalispell Glacier Park International Airport)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/allegiant-suspends-four-routes/ar-AA1UKl2n?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=69725cdcd732415aa55d0aa2a4327595&ei=45
Changes at Frontier?? New CEO, Struggling Financially
https://simpleflying.com/no-flights-april-frontier-airlines-booking-calendar-concern-passengers/
Spirit Airlines Status (in bankruptcy for 2nd time in a year)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/spirit-airlines-is-in-deal-talks-with-investment-firm-castlelake-as-struggling-carrier-seeks-path-forward/ar-AA1UJLCZ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=69725cdcd732415aa55d0aa2a4327595&ei=20
NATIONWIDE AIR SERVICE TRENDS
Montana overall certainly has fared much better than the rest of the rural America. Montana’s destination for tourism and the migration of new residents has helped support robust air service. Bozeman is one of the fastest growing airports in the nation in one of the fastest small metropolitan areas in the nation. Using Bozeman as the litmus test is not an apples-apples comparison. Many rural communities around the nation and even some larger mid-sized cities are struggling to retain let alone expand air service. Here is a synopsis of what is happening around the nation:
Federal Essential Air Service - in 2025 there were 108 communities that had air service only due to the federal government subsidizing it at an annual cost of over $550 Million for 2025. In these locations, air service would not exist otherwise as it was previously proven to be uneconomical. There are 7 Montana locations in the EAS program: Butte, West Yellowstone (summer only), Glasgow, Wolf Point, Sidney, Glendive, and Havre.
Examples of Cities with No or Limited Air Service (most of which is subsidized) –
Cheyenne (capital city) – 2 flights/day to Denver (EAS)
Salem, Oregon (capital city - 430,000 area population) – NO AIR SERVICE (previously subsidized Avelo to Burbank 2 times per week at $1.6 Million)
Topeka, Kansas (capital city – 220,000 area population)– NO AIR SERVICE (since 2009!)
Pierre, South Dakota (capital city) – Denver Air Connection (EAS)
Toledo, Ohio (600,000 area population) – NO AIR SERVICE
Binghamton, NY (250,000 area population) – 2 flights/day to JFK – recently lost but reinstated after a big effort
Dubuque, Iowa – NO AIR SERVICE
Lincoln’ Nebraska (300,000 area population) – United to 2 hubs and most recently got American to Phoenix ($4 + Million incentive package provided!)
Wyoming – every airport in Wyoming (except Jackson Hole) is either subsidized by the State’s air service capacity purchase program and/or is in EAS and also subsidized by the local city of county.
There are many more examples, but this gives you the idea. It is unfortunate that Bozeman is as close to Helena as it is, but all things considered, we are still maintaining the services we have and still growing despite their nearby presence and a lot of the examples nationwide of how things could be so much worse. And that is on top of the fact we operate the Helena Regional Airport Authority as a financially self-sufficient entity using NO LOCAL CITY, COUNTY, or STATE TAXES and our current air service is NOT SUBSIDIZED BY ANY ENTITY – whether it be local, state, or federal. We are very fortunate!
Thank you for your support of the local efforts to maintain all of the activities and economic impacts the Helena Regional Airport Authority’s 1,500-acre campus provides! I can promise you that the airport staff, board of directors, and all of the community partners involved with the Helena Air Service Alliance will continue to do everything possible to ensure the best possible air service and a modern, safe, efficient, ad economically feasible airport campus.
MORE INFORMATION
Airport Information: www.helenaairport.com
Helena Air Service Alliance: www.helenaairservice.com
