03/04/2025
000
FXUS62 KJAX 041833
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
..SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM...
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A chance of coastal showers as coastal trough breaks down and
approaches the Golden Isles this afternoon, otherwise mostly dry
conditions less a brief sprinkle across inland NE FL as gusty ESE
winds increase low level moisture ahead of an approaching storm
system this afternoon.
Tonight, cloud cover continues to thicken with above normal low
temperatures generally in the 60s as SSW winds develop with the
approach of a pre-frontal squall line. Strengthening low level
winds tonight will remain elevated in the 15-20 mph range with
gusts of 25-30 mph at times, especially toward the St. Johns River
and Atlantic coast. Rain chances with the approaching squall line
begin to enter our inland SE GA zones sometime between 5-7 am,
roughly from Hazelhurst to Homerville to Live Oak. The Storm
Prediction Center adjusted the Slight Risk of severe storm
potential (level 2 out of 5) to include all of SE GA tomorrow and
mostly of NE FL. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of
50-70 mph (medium confidence of 15-29%), a low chance (< 2%) of
isolated tornadoes and low chance (< 5%) of large hail.
&&
SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
Wednesday... A squall line will enter the inland southeast Georgia
counties around 6-8am Wednesday, with the main line progressing
southeastward through the afternoon across northeast Florida.
Within the main line, wind gusts will approach 50-70 mph,
supported by a low CAPE, high shear environment. While tornado
potential is low due to the wind profile, there remains a low
threat for an isolated tornado (2% chance). In addition to the
medium wind and low tornado threat,there is a low chance of severe
hail as lapse rates peak around 6.5 C/km. Ahead of the storms,
gusty southwesterly winds will hold at about 15-25 mph with gusts
near 30-35 mph, with dewpoints going into the 60s and temperatures
into the mid to upper 70s. Behind the primary line of severe
storms, showers and gusty winds are likely. By late afternoon, all
storms should be offshore and/or south of northeast Florida.
Thursday... High pressure will build in from the northwest as
gusty northwesterly winds fill in behind the cold frontal passage.
Despite sunny skies, temperatures will be well below normal,
remaining in the 60s area-wide. Thursday night, lows will dip into
the mid to upper 30s across inland southeast Georgia and portions
of inland northeast Florida, with 40s elsewhere. With calm winds
and clear skies overnight, there is a low chance of patchy frost
formation over inland southeast Georgia.
&&
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
Temperatures will rebound back into the 70s on Friday and Saturday
ahead of another incoming cold front is expected to pass through
Saturday night into Sunday. Timing is still uncertain, but it
looks like showers will be possible across the area Saturday
morning through Sunday, with the heaviest showers/thunderstorm
chances being Saturday evening through overnight. Cooler and drier
conditions will follow behind this cold front on Sunday night and
Monday.
&&
AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
Gusty ESE winds sustained 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts at
coastal terminals will veer SSW through 06z with some decrease
after sunset with speeds 12-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. VFR
conditions prevail with only a low chance (< 20%) of coastal
showers approaching SSI through 23-24z today. Diurnally driven
cumulus bases were around 4-5 kft agl this afternoon.
Cloud cover thickens after 00z with the approach of a pre-frontal
squall line from the west. Included wind shear around 2 kft as
very strong boundary layer winds increase with 50-55 kts indicated
by 13-14z. TSRA with squall line under increasingly SW winds
20G30kts advertised between 13-15z for all terminals tomorrow
mornings. MVFR restrictions likely as squall line moves across the
terminals tomorrow morning and TEMPO groups will be added in later
forecast updates as radar trends become better resolved.
&&
MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
Small Craft conditions will strengthen today and tonight ahead of
a cold front, with gusts to gale force after midnight through much
of Wednesday across the outer waters. A squall line of strong
thunderstorms will cross the waters Wednesday ahead of the cold
front. Storms move south of the waters by Wednesday evening and
the cold front moves south of the local waters Wednesday night as
gales continue. Small craft conditions are expected late Thursday
into Friday as high pressure builds over the local waters. Winds
begin to increase Friday night into Saturday as the high shifts
south of the region and the next cold front approaches from the
west with a return of Small Craft conditions by Saturday night.
