05/15/2023
U.S. Retail Imports Improves in March but 2023 Forecast Lowered
According to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo volume at major container ports in the U.S. while recovering from a nearly three-year low in February, will be at significantly lower levels than last year.
Most U.S. ports have recorded declining year-over-year import volumes since late last year and declining exports out of China highlight the slowdown in demand for
consumer goods, according to Hackett Associates Founder, Ben Hackett. “With economic uncertainty continuing, the impact on trade is clear,” said Hackett.
U.S. ports handled 1.62 million TEUs in March, up 5% from February but down -30.6% year-on-year. Yet-to-be published April figures are predicted at 1.73 million TEUs, translating to a -23.4% decrease year-on-year. 1.83 million TEUs are estimated to be imported by the country's ports in May, a -23.5% drop from last year's 2.4 million TEUs, June is expected to reach 1.9 million TEUs, which is a 15.9% decrease from the same month last year. The third quarter of 2023 is expected to total 6 million TEUs, down -7.2% year-on-year. The first nine months of the year would total 16.5 million TEUs, down -17.8% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the first half of 2023, previously forecast at 10.8 million TEUs, has been revised to 10.4 million TEUs, down -22.8% from the first half of 2022. “Our view is that imports will remain below recent levels until inflation rates and inventory surpluses are reduced,” Hackett said.
“Consumers are still spending and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we’re not seeing the explosive demand we saw the past two years,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold. “Congestion at the ports has largely gone away as import levels have fallen, but other supply chain challenges remain, ranging from trucker shortages to getting empty containers back to terminals.”
Source: gCaptain