30/06/2026
May's import numbers beat every published forecast. Here's the operational read.
US imports from Asia rose nearly 20% year over year in May and almost 13% above April, against an NRF/Hackett forecast of 11%. The headline is the surge. The operational story is what's underneath it: carriers have been redeploying vessels away from the trans-Pacific toward Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean, and South America for months, because those trades have delivered steadier rate growth. MSC's global capacity share has crossed roughly 21%, and the alliance landscape moved from three groupings to four, both signs of a market that requires more ships just to hold its current shape.
Layer on tariff and bunker-fee deadlines hitting July 1 and July 24, an earlier Amazon Prime Day, a consumption shift from travel back to physical goods, and tonnage pulled out of circulation by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and the trans-Pacific absorbed more demand with less structural slack than it had a few years ago.
For shippers, the practical takeaways are concrete: treat published import forecasts as a floor rather than a ceiling, review how much volume still rides the spot market versus contracted allocation, and watch blank sailing announcements as a signal that a correction may follow rather than precede the next surge.
We'll keep tracking how this plays out as the July deadlines pass.