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As a major oil producer, the UAE is an important exporter of petroleum and petroleum products globally. The UAE is strategically placed between East and West, making it an important hub for non-oil trade as well.

Top Five Hotlist Export Destinations
Rank 2013 2030
1 Japan India
2 India Japan
3 Korea China
4 Singapore Korea
5 China Singapore
The short-term trade outlook for the UAE is upbeat: the overall reading for the Trade Confidence Index in 2014H1 was the 3rd highest out of 23 countries surveyed. Furthermore, almost 65% of respondents surveyed thought the volume of trade would improve over the next 6 months.
Despite the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification, petroleum products are and will continue to dominate the country’s exports.
In the long term, the main growth opportunities for both the UAE’s importers and exporters will come from rapid growth markets in the Middle East and Asia.
Current trade position
The UAE has historically run a very large goods trade surplus (this was equivalent to 34% of GDP in 2013), owing to its substantial oil exports. This trade surplus is expected to fall (owing to smaller rises in oil exports and faster import growth) over the next few years, but will remain substantial.

Spotlight: Energy

Why energy is important
The energy sector is critical for the global economy, as fuels are a key input into the production process across a wide range of economic sectors.

Trade in Energy goods for UAE (2014-30)


Simon Cooper, Chief Executive of HSBC Commercial Banking.
“Businesses can’t afford to fixate on the risks posed by today’s geopolitical problems and uneven rates of growth at the expense of their future planning. Conditions have undoubtedly been tough for trade recently, but we are now turning a corner. The medium and long term prospects look significantly better for businesses that have prepared themselves for recovery in both developed and developing markets.”

Key findings
The UAE is a major oil producer and exporter. Although the growth rate of fuel exports will slow relative to past performance (and will be lower than the growth rate of non-fuel exports), petroleum products will continue to be the top export category for the UAE and hence the biggest contributor to total export growth.
As the UAE’s non-oil economy continues to develop, it is becoming an increasingly intensive consumer of energy. This is especially because domestic energy subsidies have had the effect of dis-incentivising efficient energy usage. We therefore forecast the UAE’s energy import growth to average almost 7% per year between 2014 and 2030.
Short-term snapshot

Summary
The most important type of trading activity for the UAE is importation of finished or semi-finished goods, with almost 60% of TCI respondents engaged in such activity. As a result, it is unsurprising that Asia is currently the most important trading partner for the UAE, with over 65% of businesses surveyed reporting trade activity with the region.

HSBC Trade Confidence Index
Sentiment towards trade prospects in the UAE at the moment is firmly positive, and the overall index reading for 2014 H1 is the 3rd highest out of the 23 countries surveyed. 47% of respondents believe trading volumes will increase “slightly” over the next 6 months, and another 16% believe the increase in trade volumes will be “significant”. An increase in demand – either globally or in key markets – is cited as the basis for this increase by around 45% of respondents.

HSBC Trade Confidence Index


Cross-border business
Despite the generally positive sentiment around trade prospects, survey respondents identified a number of barriers to growing their cross-border business. The most notable constraint identified was availability of credit/liquidity (cited by 39% of respondents), followed by exchange rate volatility (31%) and insufficient profitability (29%).

Regional export flows


Corridors of choice
Asia and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are regions the UAE trades most with. Within those regions, the countries accounting for the most trade were India and Saudi Arabia (with, respectively, 18% and 14% of respondents reporting primarily trading with these countries).
Other notable trade partners identified include China (with 12% of respondents identifying it as their main trading partner), the neighbouring GCC economies of Oman and Qatar (a combined 11%) and Germany (4%).
Looking ahead to the near-term future, it is likely that current broad trade corridors of choice will remain unchanged. Around 75% of respondents think that Asia or the MENA region will have the best opportunities of growth over the next 6 months.
Opportunities for business
The UAE has attractive fundamentals that will stand it in good stead to continue to develop its trade prospects. Firstly, it is strategically located between East and West, enabling access to a diverse group of markets. Secondly, it has established Dubai as the largest trade hub in the Middle East. Thirdly, the Emirati dirham’s peg to the US$ alleviates some exchange rate volatility concerns for traders already dealing in US$. As a result, the UAE should stand to benefit from increasingly global trade flows in the medium-to-long term.

Longer-Term Outlook

Expectations for the global economy
Developments in global oil supply and demand will continue to be the main determinants of the UAE’s export outlook in the medium-to-long term, which will still be dominated by energy. And on the import front, the UAE is expected to continue to rely on Asia for its capital goods needs, as this region continues its ascent up the value-added chain.

Corridors to watch
The fastest growing export markets for the UAE will be energy hungry emergers – exports to China, Malaysia, Turkey and India will see the fastest growth rates between 2017 and 2030. Asia and Turkey will also remain the most important trade partners in terms of imports: Import growth will be fastest for goods originating from China, India, Turkey and Vietnam.

UAE’s projected sector contribution increase in merchandise exports


Focus on Energy

Despite the ongoing diversification of the UAE’s economy, petroleum products will remain both the largest category of total exports and the largest contributor to total export growth up to 2030 (accounting for over 40% of total export growth over this forecast horizon).
The projected geographical mapping of the UAE’s largest and fastest-growing export markets therefore largely reflect oil demand trends. OECD oil demand has probably peaked, owing to energy efficiency gains coupled with the rise of alternative energy sources (some domestic). Hence, global oil demand growth in the future will be concentrated in non-OECD emerging markets.
Conclusion

Despite the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification, petroleum products will continue to dominate exports, meaning that the most important trade corridors on the export front will continue to be fast-growing emerging markets. UAE importers should also focus on emerging markets as well; as the likes of China, India, Vietnam and Turkey will be the fastest growing corridors for import growth.

About the HSBC Trade Forecast – Modelled by Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC’s own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries. Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, as well as country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The analysis also includes trade with Japan and Korea for a total sample of 25 key trading nations.

Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter’s competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2014-16, 2017-20 and 2021-30. Sectors are classified according to the UN’s Standard International Trade Classifications (SITC) system at the two-digit level and grouped into 30 sector headings. More information about the sector modelling can be found on http://www.globalconnections.hsbc.com/

About the HSBC Trade Confidence Index:
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets, and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six- month views of 5,200 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume, buyer and supplier risks, the need for trade finance, access to trade finance and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses. The fieldwork for the current wave (11) was conducted between May - July 2014 and gauges sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth in the next six months.

Sector Focus – Methodology
This report also includes special sections on key industries – agriculture, energy, metals, pharmaceuticals, technology and textiles. Based on the same underlying forecasts used for the existing analysis of trends in bilateral trade flows, the report examines how exports/imports of these groups of products are expected to evolve over time. The definitions used in the report for each of these sectors are below:

Agriculture
·Live animals (SITC code 00)

·Meat and meat preparations (SITC code 01)

·Dairy products and birds' eggs (SITC code 02)

·Fish, crustaceans, molluscs (SITC code 03)

·Cereals and cereal preparations (SITC code 04)

·Vegetables and fruit (SITC code 05)

·Sugars, sugar preparations and honey (SITC code 06)

·Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices (SITC code 07)

·Feeding stuff for animals (SITC code 08)

·Other edible products (SITC code 09)

·Beverages (SITC code 11)

·Tobacco (SITC code 12)

Energy
·Coal, coke and briquettes (SITC code 32)

·Petroleum and petroleum products (SITC code 33)

·Gas, natural and manufactured (SITC code 34)

·Electric current (SITC code 35)

Metals
·Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (SITC code 28)

·Iron and steel (SITC code 67)

·Non-ferrous metals (SITC code 68)

·Other manufactures of metals (SITC code 69)

Pharmaceuticals
·Medicinal and pharmaceutical products (SITC code 54)

Technology
·Office machines and automatic data-processing machines (SITC code 75)

·Telecommunications equipment (SITC code 76).

·Electrical machinery and appliances (SITC code 77)

·Professional, scientific and controlling instruments and apparatus (SITC code 87)

·Photographic apparatus and optical goods (SITC code 88)

Textiles and Garments
·Textile fibres (SITC code 26)

·Textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles (SITC code 65)

·Travel goods, handbags and similar containers (SITC code 83)

·Articles of apparel and clothing accessories (SITC code 84)

·Footwear (SITC code 85)

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FAQ - Exports

AT SIGHT
Indicates that payment of a negotiable instrument is due upon presentation or demand.

BILL OF EXCHANGE
Also called a draft. An unconditional order from the drawer to the drawee, directing him to pay a specified amount to a named payee at a fixed or determinable future time.

BILL OF LADING
Service as a document of title, a contract of carriage, and a receipt of goods. Usually prepared by the shipper on forms issued by the carrier, indicating that goods are to be transported from one point to another.

COST AND FREIGHT (C&F)
C&F means "Cost and Freight". The seller must pay the costs and freight necessary to bring the goods to the named destination, but the risk of loss of or damage to the goods, as well as of any cost increases, is transferred from the seller to the buyer when the goods pass the ship's rail in the port of shipment.

COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF)
CIF means "Cost, Insurance and Freight". This term is basically the same as C&F but with the addition that the seller has to procure insurance against the risk of loss of or damage to the goods during the carriage. The seller contract with the insurer and pays the insurance premiums.

CONFIRMED LETTER OF CREDIT
A letter of credit which has been confirmed by a second bank Such confirmation is desirable, since the seller may not be familiar with the foreign bank which issued the L/C.

CONSIGNMENT
A physical transfer of goods from an exporter (consignor) to an importer (consignee) for the importer to sell. The consignor retains title of the goods until the consignee has sold the goods. The consignee sells the goods for commission and remits the net proceeds to the consignor.

D/A
Documents against acceptance; instructions given by a shipper to his bank that the documents attached to a draft for collection are deliverable to the drawee only against his acceptance of the draft.

D/P
Documents against payment; instructions given by a shipper to his bank that the documents attached to a draft for collection are deliverable to the drawee only against his payment of the draft.

E. & 0. E.
Errors and Omissions Excepted; a phrase accompanying the shipper's signature on an invoice, by which he disclaims final responsibility for typographical errors or unintentional omissions.

F. I. 0.
Free In and Out. Refers to loading and unloading costs as they apply to the vessel. The owner of the goods is responsible for the costs of loading and discharge.

F.O.
Free Out. Under this term the owner of goods is responsible for discharging costs.

FORCE MAJEURE
The title of a standard clause found in marine contracts exempting the parties for non-fulfilment of their obligations by reason of occurrence beyond their control, such as earthquakes, floods, or war.

FREE ON BOARD (FOB)
FOB means "Free on Board". The goods are placed on board a ship by the seller at a port of shipment named in the sales contract. The risk of loss of or damage to the goods is transferred from the seller to the buyer when the goods pass the ship's rail.

L/C
Letter of Credit. A document issued by a bank at the buyer's request in favour of the seller, promising to pay the agreed amount of money upon receipt by the bank of stipulated documents within a specified time.