AV Shipbrokers, Краснопресненская набережная, 12, Moscow (2026)

03/08/2024

Global coal demand to remain broadly flat through 2025

Global coal demand is set to remain broadly unchanged in both 2024 and 2025, as surging electricity demand in some major economies offsets the impacts of a gradual recovery in hydropower and the rapid expansion of solar and wind, according to the IEA.

The world’s use of coal rose by 2.6% in 2023 to reach an all-time high, driven by strong growth in China and India, the two largest coal consumers globally. While coal demand grew in both the electricity and industrial sectors, the main driver was the use of coal to fill the gap created by low hydropower output and rapidly rising electricity demand.

Coal demand in Europe is continuing on the downward trend that began in the late 2000s, largely due to emissions reduction efforts in power generation. After having fallen by more than 25% in 2023, coal power generation in the EU is forecast to drop by almost as much again this year. Coal use has also been contracting significantly in the US in recent years, but stronger electricity demand and less switching from coal to natural gas threaten to slow this trend in 2024. Japan and Korea continue to reduce their reliance on coal, although at a slower pace than Europe.

On the supply side, global coal production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024 after steady growth the year before. In 2024, coal production in China is moderating after two years of staggering growth. In India, the push to boost coal production continues, with a supply increase of around 10% expected in 2024. In advanced economies, coal production is in decline, broadly reflecting demand.

31/07/2024

Positive outlook for bulkers as demand outpaces supply

Growing global demand for commodities and a sluggish newbuild market up until 2023 have set the stage for bullish growth in the bulker market in the coming years. Although high interest rates and inflation have hampered the global economy over the past few years, demand for dry cargo remains strong, increasing by over 5% in 2023, led by some key commodities.

Demand for iron ore, (the biggest share of the global dry bulk market), is still strong. The demand for coal (second-largest share), has remained strong despite forecasts. On top of this, the demand for grains and especially soybeans is growing exceptionally, together with what we commonly refer to as ‘minor bulk’.

China, the largest global importer of dry bulk commodities, has been dictating the strength of the bulker market for years. Today the Chinese economy seems to be picking up again after some weak years. There is a record number of new coal-fired power plants being constructed in China in 2023, driving continued high demand for coal imports.

On top of this, demand for food-related commodities is actually increasing faster than anything else. For example, demand for soybeans increased by over 10% in 2023, driven by an expanding global population and changing eating habits.

Events such as the Ukraine conflict and Red Sea attacks have altered trading patterns, leading to longer shipping routes. The result is a higher increase in total tonne mile demand compared to the pure tonne demand.

These factors have pushed freight rates up.

28/07/2024

Cargo transhipment in North Sea Port remains stable

Over the first six months of this year, the companies in North Sea Port recorded a volume of 33.4 million tons of seaborne cargo transhipment. This is the same as in the equivalent period in 2023.

Looking at the different commodities handled, there are rises in ‘recession-sensitive’ products such as construction materials, petroleum products and chemical products.

Broken down by cargo types, the transhipment of liquid bulk goods (7.5 million tons) grew by 5%, with increases in chemical products and fertilizers.

The transhipment of general cargo rose by 4.1%, primarily thanks to increased volumes of cellulose. Wheeled cargo throughput remained steady. Dry bulk goods fell by 2% to 18 million tons. Transhipment volumes dropped in categories including oil seeds and iron ore.

As a result of EU sanctions, trade with Russia fell by a further 17% during the first six months of the year. Russia is now North Sea Port’s tenth biggest trading partner, whereas two years ago it held top spot. The UK is currently the port’s most important trading partner, followed by the United States and Sweden.

Cargo transhipment via inland navigation rose by 2.6% over the first six months of the year to 32.2 million tons. Throughput in liquid bulk goods increased, while the volume of dry bulk goods handled remained static.

25/07/2024

Last season grain exports from the Russian Federation almost reached 90 million tons

According to the FSIS "Argus-Fito", for the 2023/24 MY, the territorial departments of Rosselkhoznadzor issued phytosanitary certificates for the export of 89.3 million tons of grain and products of its processing, which is 21% higher than the figure for the 2022/23 season (73.9 million tons).

Compared to the previous season, shipments of the following types of grain products showed a noticeable increase: barley - by 67%, to 9.46 million tons, corn - by 31%, to 7.7 million tons, peas - by 2 times, to 3.37 million tons, wheat flour - by 60%, up to 1.27 million tons, oats - 2 times, up to 334.7 thousand tons, rye - 3 times, up to 231.5 thousand tons, buckwheat - 2 times up to 222.5 thousand tons.

Among the countries importing Russian grain in the 2023/24 season, India significantly increased purchases - by 22 times, Indonesia - by 8 times, Tunisia and Bangladesh - by 3 times each, Yemen (+60%), China ( +57%), UAE (+55%), Brazil (+43%), Mexico (+39%).

22/07/2024

POSITIVE SENTIMENT RETURNS TO THE MARKET

This week finished on a positive note with the Capesize 5TC increasing by $942, finishing the week at $27,388. The rate for C8 transatlantic round voyage, significantly increased by over $3,000 on Wednesday, reaching $29,464. There were also notable increases in fronthaul cargoes from the North Atlantic later in the week, particularly for first half of August dates. Fixture levels increased as vessels with prompt dates were scarce in attracting interest from charterers.

An active and busy week for the Panamax market culminated in decent gains made as the Atlantic market came to the fore once again, with South America absorbing tonnage worldwide, adding support to markets. The Atlantic saw improved levels tonnage count shrank mid-week. From the South, an 82,000-dwt vessel was fixed delivery EC South America end-July for a fronthaul at $19,250 plus $925,000 ballast bonus, whilst an 82,000-dwt fixed delivery West Mediterranean for a transatlantic run at $13,000.

A week of steady improvements in the US Gulf with a lack of tonnage availability a large driving force behind the positivity. Visible activity remained in the Asian markets with a 57,000-dwt fixing from Bayaquan via Goa to the Mediterranean-Continent with an intended cargo of steels at $15,500 for the first 65 days and $17,500 for the balance of the charter. A 61,000-dwt opening in CJK fixed via the east coast of Australia to the Philippines at $16,000. The period market also remained active with a 56,000-dwt opening ex-drydock in Zhoushan fixing for a year at $14,000.

In the Handysize segment large gains were seen in the US Gulf region this week with a 42,000-dwt fixing from SW Pass to the West Coast, whilst a 37,000-dwt opening in East Coast Mexico was fixed basis delivery SW Pass for a trip to Morocco with an intended cargo of grains at $17,500. In the South Atlantic with improving levels of fresh enquiry a 38,000-dwt was linked to fixing from San Lorenzo to the Caribbean at $21,000. Levels began to improve in the Asia markets too.

19/07/2024

EU Taxonomy for shipping: A transition to sustainability

On 21 November 2023 and following extensive consultation periods, the amendment to the Climate Delegated Act was formally adopted by the European Commission and published in the EU Official Journal.

The Climate Delegated Act Amendment, which came into effect at the start of 2024, includes amendments to the shipping technical screening criteria in the Climate Delegated Act and impacts which shipping activities can be classified as “environmentally sustainable”.

The EU Taxonomy is a classification system that establishes a list of environmentally sustainable economic activities. It was introduced in recognition of the need to access private capital to support the transition to a low carbon economy. The criteria prescribed by the EU Taxonomy Regulation are intended to encourage investor confidence that investments will have a positive environmental impact. Article 9 of the Taxonomy Regulation sets out a number of environmental objectives: an economic activity must meet at least one of these in order to qualify as environmentally sustainable.

These are: climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, the sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources, the transition to a circular economy, pollution prevention and control, and the protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems.

It then provides that economic activities can be included within the Taxonomy Regulation as “environmentally sustainable” if they respect 4 overarching conditions:
1. make a substantial contribution to one or more of the six environmental objectives above;
2. do no significant harm to any of the other environmental objectives;
3. are carried on in compliance with certain safeguards (such as compliance with certain international human rights and labour standards); and
4. comply with the technical screening criteria set out in delegated legislation to the Taxonomy Regulation.

16/07/2024

VARIED OUTLOOK FOR DRY BULK DEMAND

A varied outlook for commodity import demand around the world is evolving. Global seaborne dry bulk trade evidently has been holding up firmly after last year’s upturn but potential for further growth in 2024 seems uncertain and limited.

Following last year’s recovery, a flat or marginally higher volume of world seaborne iron ore trade could be seen in 2024. The performance of China will probably have the largest influence on shaping the outcome due to its dominant position.

During the first 4 months of this year China’s iron ore imports totalled 412mt (million tonnes), rising by 7% from the same period a year earlier. However, crude steel production was 3% lower in the January–April period.

Restricted import growth or possible downturns, in coal imports by the two largest buyers — India and China —together comprising almost half of the world total, are envisaged during 2024. Elsewhere, including many European countries and some Asian importers, growth prospects are heavily constrained by continuing advances in the shift towards cleaner energy supplies.

More attention is now being focused on prospects for grain and soya trade in the new 2024/25 year approaching.

The US Department of Agriculture suggested that world grain and soya trade may be marginally higher by under 1%. In the current 2023/24 year a 24mt or 4% increase to 693mt is estimated. But the calculation for the year ahead is tentative.

Higher volumes of industrial raw materials and products movements could provide additional impetus for the minor bulk segment this year. Positive signs have emerged in some of the biggest components, the steel products, forest products and bauxite/alumina trades, as well as in other ores and minerals.

13/07/2024

Mixed fortunes again for the shipping sector

The Capesize market experienced an eventful week despite starting off quietly with the BCI 5TC dropping by $409 to $25,650 on Monday. However, the market turned around midweek with a surge in activity, especially in the Atlantic. According to reports, approximately 18-20 fixtures had been concluded, substantially reducing the number of ballasters and adding pressure to the market. This increased activity resulted in the BCI 5TC, rising to $28,557 by the week’s end.

A further eroding of rates was seen for the Panamax market this week. The Atlantic returned smaller losses and throughout the week sources spoke of a two-tiered market between the mineral and grain trades, with the former seeing again hugely discounted rates. Rates ex South America continued to ease, with minimal activity. Asia, beset all week by a growing tonnage list, saw rates fall away dramatically, sentiment remains bearish with little signs of a recovery.

Mixed fortunes again for the Ultramax/Supramax sector, as ‘summertime blues’ probably described the Atlantic whilst from Asia the week started on a positive note, although as it finished even here positive sentiment eroded. The Atlantic was rather positional, with demand from the US Gulf seemingly ebbing away. A similar story from the Continent-Mediterranean as prompt tonnage became readily available. From Asia, changing fortunes during the course of the week.

A lackluster feel was seen across the handy sector as the week progressed. The Continent and Mediterranean were the highlights of the Atlantic, with a 38,000-dwt fixing from the Black Sea to Morocco with grains at $14,000 whilst a 33,000-dwt fixed from Middlesbrough to the US Gulf with a cargo of steels at $12,500. After a period of positivity, the US Gulf showed signs of stabilizing, with a 35,000-dwt fixing from Cape Henry to the North Continent with coal at $15,000. Visible activity in the Asia markets was minimal but numbers had remained steady.

11/07/2024

VLCCs might play spoilsport in the LR market

Skyrocketing freight rates in the product tanker market, especially in the LR segment, are luring some charterers to use VLCCs for the CPP trade after tank cleaning. As most LRs carrying Middle Eastern diesel to Europe are passing through the Cape of Good Hope, the stretched voyages have not only increased the cost of transportation but also tightened tonnage supply, underpinning LR rates.

While LR rates are soaring due to tight supply, VLCC earnings are low amid subdued Chinese demand and production cuts by Middle Eastern producers. Higher charter rates in the LR market are inducing charterers to use VLCCs in the CPP trade.

Usually, crude tankers carry CPP from the Far East to Europe on their maiden voyage as the tanks of a new tanker are clean. Once a crude tanker starts carrying dirty cargo, they cannot be employed directly in the CPP trade as their tanks are not clean enough. Although crude oil washing (COW) is done to clean out the tanks between voyages, it is inadequate to make tanks clean enough to carry clean products since the process of such cleaning is lengthy and expensive.

Still for oil traders owning crude tankers, the decision to move to VLCCs/Suezmaxes from crude to CPP trade after tank cleaning will be easier as it will minimise most of the risks related to employability, parcel size, cargo quality etc.

So, crude tanker employment might rise in the CPP trade as the gap in freight rates in the product and dirty tankers is wide enough to justify the switch. However, any influx of big crude tankers in the CPP trade will cool off the rates in the LR market as one VLCC will displace at least four LR1 tankers.

08/07/2024

Big Ships Popular Among Greek Ship Owners

Larger ship sizes are still quite popular among Greek owners.

In the dry bulk market Greek shipowners bought “Mineral Charlie” and “Mineral Maureen” (Newcastlemax sector). In the Capesize sector “Courageous” and “Stella Hope” were acquired by them, and in Kamsarmax sector – “Livia Rose” – 82K/2018 Tsuneishi Zhoushan.

By contrast, the tanker S&P activity was low end of June with only 4 sales to report. On the VLCC sector, Greek buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted “C. Prosperity” and the LR1 Avra Patros built 2008 Sundong (SS due 2028 BWTS fitted) was sold to Greek buyers at $29.75 mln.

Meanwhile, in the newbulding market, China Merchants Energy was reported booking a big order for 14 x 210,000 dwt scrubber fitted Newcastlemax: six vessels will be built at Qingdao Bohai and the remaining units at New Times Shipbuilding; the reported price is $76 mln each, while deliveries are stemming from March 2028 to December 2029. Gearbulk exercised the option for 4x more 45,000 dwt open hatch bulk carriers for transport of pulp at Huangpu Wenchong; vessel will be dual fuel ammonia and methanol ready, to be delivered in 2027. Vitol invested around $300 mln in the construction of 4 x LR2 product carriers at Dalian Shipbuilding, deliveries set for 2nd half of 2026 .It is confirmed that Cape Shipping ordered 2 x LR2 vessels from Dalian Shipbuilding Industry, priced at $72 million, with early deliveries set for the first half of 2026.

Containers defied predictions of a slowdown and newbuild orders were rising again, particularly for modern feeder and NeoPanamax vessels.

06/07/2024

Dry Bulk Market: Supply Dynamics Capesize C3 & C5 routes

Between the number of ballast vessels on the Capesize C3 route and the evolution of C3 $/mt freight rates (Brazil – NChina) it’s observed a gradual decline in the number of ballasters following a sudden spike at the beginning of June, alongside a strengthening trend in freight market rates.

Meanwhile, the number of ballasters for the C5 route (Australia – China), is showing a similar trend with a recent decrease in ballast vessels. However, unlike the C3 route, freight rates for the C5 route have not yet shown signs of recovery.

In the last days of June, the dry bulk freight market showed signs of recovery in the Capesize segment, with hopes for a firmer Chinese economic performance reflected in the last closing of iron ore prices.

FREIGHT: In the final days of June, the dry bulk freight market is showing signs of gaining stronger traction, particularly in the larger vessel size categories. Of note is a notable increase in the Capesize Brazil to N China rates, which is bolstering confidence in market stability.

SUPPLY: Towards the end of June, there has been a consistent decline in the number of ballast ships across all vessel size segments, with the exception of a noted increase in the Handysize segment in NOPAC.

DEMAND: In the final days of June, the outlook for dry tonne days in the Capesize segment has shown a surprising upward trend. Additionally, other vessel size categories are gradually recovering from the lows experienced six weeks ago.

PORT CONGESTION: The upward trend observed in the first half of June, which peaked at the start of the third week, now appears to be ending the month with a downward correction.

04/07/2024

Exuberant dry bulk market sees asset prices streak ahead of earnings

Dry bulk market players are putting earnings potential over asset values as they seek to capitalise on an exuberantly positive mood according to new analysis by MSI. Q1 2024 saw 250 sales recorded – the second highest quarterly total over the past 10 years – and age was no barrier to buyers with cash on hand.

MSI’s assessment of capesize 5-year-old prices reached an astonishing $60m in May, almost 20% higher than at the start of the year and the highest since 2010. Current values compare very strongly against historical averages.

Older vessels are currently valued at an even higher premium over the corresponding long-term average than 5-year-olds – the same comparison for 10-year-old ships yields a premium of an average 63% across all benchmark sizes vs the average since 2010.

A major factor behind rising asset values has been the impact of very strong newbuilding prices, which have deterred owners from making orders for new ships. High prices and a large number of sales transactions suggests very high demand in the S&P market which in turn has propelled values to levels much higher than underlying vessel earnings would support.

Indeed, it appears that the normally close relationship between earnings and asset values has partly broken down, leaving values around 25-50% higher than earnings would suggest.

A low price to earnings ratio implies that either assets are undervalued, or earnings are expected to fall. There could be an element of truth to both these factors, but MSI leans towards the view that assets are currently overvalued relative to earnings. Moreover, the constrained supply side would see newbuilding prices remain high.

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