15/10/2026
South American cocoa: weather is becoming an increasingly important supply risk
Over the past three months, weather conditions across South America have created a mixed but broadly challenging environment for cocoa producers and is having an effect on the Logistics industry.
Ecuador: Heavy and unseasonal rainfall has increased humidity, disease pressure and the risk of crop losses, particularly from fungal diseases such as Monilia.
Brazil: Parts of Bahia and northern Brazil have experienced significant dryness and drought, raising concerns around flowering, pod development and bean filling.
Peru: Excess rainfall earlier in the season affected flowering, with indications that the 2026 crop could come in below the previous season.
Colombia: Strengthening El Niรฑo conditions are increasing the risk of higher temperatures and below-normal rainfall, potentially adding further stress to the crop.
The key takeaway is that South American cocoa is facing two opposing weather risks: too much rain in some areas and too little in others. For the cocoa market, the next few months will be important. October to December weather could determine how much of the current crop concern translates into actual supply losses.
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