JLA Global Parts Ltd

20/04/2023

Project Fact: Growth in the UK economy was revised upwards in January 2023 from 0.3% to 0.4% meaning we are on track for the 1.0-1.5% growth forecasted by this page for 2023. This runs contrary to the “expert” forecasting narrative of a deep 12-18 month recession, now revised down to a shallow “recession” of -0.3%.

Provisional growth in February 2023 was 0.0%, which was 0.2% below what it would have been without the disruption of public sector strikes. Therefore, there was also underlying growth in February and this provisional figure may well be revised up later.

So again No Recession Here, except in the forecasts of the IMF and OBR that were then gleefully taken as gospel by our friends in the media. Right now Germany and Italy are actually in recession

UK GDP is also now 0.3% above its pre-lockdown economic output level according to the Office of National Statistics which addresses the Remainer gloat that the UK was lagging all other major economies by this measure.

Since lockdown ended, and Brexit became a reality following the transition period in 2020, the UK economy had the fastest growing economy in the G-7 in 2021 and 2022. So that was “Despite Brexit” but including 10 months of the War in Ukraine. The Ukraine war really began to affect the economy from June 2022 onwards.

Most Remainers/ Leftists were in favour of the hard lockdowns that caused the UK economy to shrink by 11% in 2020 whilst also created an enormous public debt that countries such as Sweden did not accumulate because lockdown/ isolation was voluntary there.

They then try to blame Brexit for the time it has taken to recover from this despite two very strong years, whilst at the same time dealing with the inflation and supply chain problems caused by worldwide lockdowns, quantitative easing and the War in Ukraine.

The final punishment faced by the UK economy as elsewhere is the normalization of interest rates, which are returning to historic norms, but which suppress economic activity and add to the debt burden with higher interest repayments.

It is actually quite remarkable that the underlying trend for the post-Brexit UK economy is still positive and growing in early 2023 despite these enormous and unprecedented headwinds that are being used to discredit Brexit.

Source: Trading Economics/ ONS

20/04/2023

The UK economy is now expected to avoid both a technical recession and a calendar year contraction in 2023, according to the EY ITEM Club Spring Forecast. The economy is expected to record 0.2% gro…

29/03/2023

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11/03/2023

11/03/2023

Some balanced reporting.

Project Fact: the UK Economy Grew by 0.3% in January 2023 Again Avoiding Recession and Confounding the Forecasts of Doom we have been Subjected to since the Brexit Vote Outcome in June 2016.

The definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth. There is STILL no recession here despite claims since the summer of 2022 that a “deep and prolonged recession is right around the corner which is going to be longest in living memory” lasting through 2023 and 2024.

As this graphic shows from Trading Economics shows- until July 2022 the UK was growing at an annualised rate significantly above 2% per month as the Covid recovery continued apace.

Then: as the War in Ukraine began to bite, disrupting supply chains again, after they were still recovering from Covid, and with inflation and interest rates now rocketing, plus the Covid spending hangover day of reckoning upon us, growth began to become erratic and stall.

However, despite all these headwind factors the UK still managed a growth rate of 4.1% for the full year 2022 as a whole, the highest in the G-7, revised up from a forecasted 3.6%. The UK also achieved the highest growth in the G-7 in 2021 thanks to coming out of Lockdown more quickly due to the vaccine rollout.

What the 0.3% growth in January 2023 proves is that the UK economy is extremely resilient as it has proven since 2016 where despite claims, growth has matched that of Germany over those seven years, being significantly ahead at the end of 2019, before the UK locked down economically more significantly than any other G-7 country, along with Italy and Spain suffering an 11% contraction in 2020, compared to only 5% in Germany.

With oil and gas prices stabilised or falling, and with historically low unemployment (almost at the level of what is called “Full Employment”) which hasn’t gone up very much in the last 6 months, with other supply chains recovering from Covid, and with China coming back on-line, it was highly unlikely that the UK economy was ever going to go into such a deep recession whilst no one else was.

Indeed, in the month of October the forecasted growth rate of 0.0% was exceeded by a wide margin with 0.5% achieved. But still the headlines continued.

In fact, the Eurozone as a whole has just reported ZERO growth for the last quarter of 2022, so not a whole lot different to the UK with Germany technically in recession territory.

So, every country is facing the same pressures but only one is called out by the Doomsters- the UK. Why is that?

The Office of Budgetary Responsibility, the Treasury, the IMF and the Mainstream Media that is selective in what it reports, are very forthcoming with their “Forecasts” but not so good at apologising publicly for getting it wrong and adjusting their methods, as that would just be too inconvenient wouldn’t it?

Source: Trading Economics, Office of National Statistics

10/03/2023

Chancellor coming under pressure from some Tory MPs to cut taxes in a bid to boost growth

07/03/2023

The UK and Canada have agreed a landmark agreement to co-operate on critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium that are essential to the economy. Agreement signed on Minister Nus Ghani’s five-day…